土地财政的形成、危害及改革措施

一直以来,土地收入作为财政收入来源中的重要一项,在各地方政府财政中占有很大份额。在财权与事权搭配不合理的情况下,地方政府积极谋求其他方式来增加收入,土地增值税便成为增加地方财政收入的法宝。"土地财政"造成产业结构畸形发展,并易于滋生腐败。打破"土地财政"必须改革财政分税制,统一整合房地产税或物业税,重构政绩考核体制。     

金融危机影响下城市产业集聚区发展的思考

金融危机对城市经济的发展造成了巨大的冲击和影响,产业集聚区的发展在优化经济结构、转变发展方式、实现节约集约发展方面发挥了重要作用。通过分析国内产业集聚区发展过程中存在的问题,提出切实提高规划的科学性,突出产业集群效应,选好产业支撑,把好项目入驻门槛,建设高素质的企业家队伍和健全管理体制等是金融危机影响下产业集聚区科学发展的路径选择。     

我国碳金融发展的形势展望与政策建议

当前,应对气候变化已成为全球问题,其中市场机制和金融工具的作用非常关键。我国作为全球最主要的温室气体排放国之一,减排的国际压力可能继续上升。而实现国民经济的长期可持续发展,也需要经济发展方式从能源消耗模式转向低碳模式。这种长期减排的压力给我国碳金融的发展带来了机遇。但以现实条件而言,当前我国碳金融仍处于非常初级的探索阶段,为此,文章提出了短期内推动我国碳金融发展的关注重点及相关政策建议。     

On the statistical differences between binary forecasts and real-world payoffs

We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and “beliefs” (expressed as a specific “event” will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits/harm from an event) and show the effect of their conflation and mischaracterization in the decision-science literature. We also examine the differences under thin and fat tails. The effects: [A] Spuriousness of many psychological results, particularly those documenting that humans overestimate tail probabilities. We quantify such conflations. [B] Being a “good forecaster” in binary space doesn’t lead to having a good actual performance, and vice versa, especially under nonlinearities. A binary forecasting record is likely to be a reverse indicator under some classes of distributions or deeper uncertainty. [C] Machine Learning: Some nonlinear payoff functions, while not lending themselves to verbalistic expressions, are well captured by ML or expressed in option contracts. Fattailedness: The difference is exacerbated in the power law classes of probability distributions.     

In search of beta

Despite its limitations, the CAPM is a popular asset pricing model. However, the estimation of beta in the CAPM is affected by the choice of the returns frequency and firm characteristics. This study undertakes a detailed examination of the evidence for the UK and we find that the differences in beta computed from returns of various frequencies are related to size, liquidity, book-to-market and to some degree, opacity factors. One area where our conclusions might have important implications is in the regulatory use of the CAPM. Our results imply that low frequency beta estimates should, in most cases, be preferred to high frequency beta estimates.     

Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆

Whether finance is beneficial to economic development remains ambiguous. There are studies arguing that finance can facilitate growth and increase stability. However, the recent global financial crisis has led some to argue that finance can decrease stability and lead to more crises. This paper constructs a non-monotonic framework of quantity of finance (measured by leverage) and financial crisis and decomposes leverage into fundamental and excess components. Using cross-country level data, the empirical results confirms that it is excess leverage, rather than fundamental leverage, that results in the increase of probability of financial crisis. Further empirical results show that excess leverage leads to a higher probability of currency crisis, asset price collapse, and banking crisis, while fundamental leverage helps alleviates the crises. This paper reconciles the two contrasting views of the relationship between finance and economic development and provides strong policy implication to pay special attention to the sudden increase of leverage, which is probably excessive, rather than fundamental leverage.     

University fees and the demand for STEM degrees

The 2006 increase in university tuition in the UK was followed by a 3–4% reduction in the proportion of students choosing STEM degrees, due either to a change in the composition of students, or to similar students selecting away from STEM subjects. This article tests the latter hypothesis, estimating the effect of the fees for comparable students using propensity score matching on a rich set of covariates. Results suggest that the change was entirely driven by compositional changes.     

Narcissism,political tenure,financial indicators and the effectiveness of environmental regulation

This article explores the factors that determine the effectiveness of environmental regulation in the United States and Australia. Unlike prior literature, in which lagging performance measures (such as carbon emissions) are used, we use financial data to develop effectiveness scores and identify the determinants of effectiveness, including narcissistic behaviour, tenure of political leaders and financial indicators. Consistent with the emerging literature on environmental finance, we find that abnormal returns are associated with environmental regulation and that effectiveness is adversely affected when narcissistic leaders are in power. Our results remain robust when we control for various event windows and models.     

Does the choice in valuation method matter in the judicial appraisal of private firms?

This paper investigates empirical relations between the redemption values of minority shares and valuation methods used by dissenting parties in the judicial valuation of private firms. We examine a comprehensive data set of Finnish judicial appraisal cases in which the judge decides the valuation of the minority stake in a private firm after learning the valuation estimates put forward by the controlling shareholder(s) and the minority shareholder(s). Rationality in valuation will be achieved if a valuation estimate incorporates all the available information regardless of the valuation method adopted. Conversely, the measurement perspective argues that biases inherent in valuation approaches determine the information content in a valuation estimate. Our statistical analyses suggest that the choices made concerning the valuation method are statistically correlated with the appraisal outcomes. We interpret this as evidence consistent with the measurement perspective.